This notebook contains a set of analyses for analyzing GOBBluth89’s boardgamegeek collection. The bulk of the analysis is focused on building a user-specific predictive model to predict the games that the specified user is likely to own. This enables us to ask questions like, based on the games the user currently owns, what games are a good fit for their collection? What upcoming games are they likely to purchase?
We can look at a basic description of the number of games that the user owns, has rated, has previously owned, etc.
What years has the user owned/rated games from? While we can’t see when a user added or removed a game from their collection, we can look at their collection by the years in which their games were published.
We can look at the most frequent types of categories, mechanics, designers, and artists that appear in a user’s collection.
We’ll examine predictive models trained on a user’s collection for games published through 2020. How many games has the user owned/rated/played in the training set (games prior to 2020)?
username | dataset | period | games_owned | games_rated |
GOBBluth89 | training | published before 2020 | 75 | 0 |
GOBBluth89 | validation | published 2020 | 12 | 0 |
GOBBluth89 | test | published after 2020 | 7 | 0 |
The main outcome we will be modeling for the user is owned, which refers to whether the user currently owns or has a previously owned a game in their collection. Our goal is to train a predictive model to learn the probability that a user will add a game to their collection based on its observable features. This amounts to looking at historical data and looking to find patterns that exist between features of games and games present in the user’s collection.
One of the models we trained was a decision tree, which looks for decision rules that can be used to separate games the user owns from games they don’t. The resulting model produces a decision corresponding to yes or no statements: to explain why the model predicts the user to own game, we start at the top of the tree and follow the rules that were learned from the training data.
Note: the tree below has been further pruned to make it easier to visualize.
Decision trees are highly interpretible models that are easy to train and can identify important interactions and nonlinearities present in the data. Individual trees have the drawback of being less predictive than other common models, but it can be useful to look at them to gain some understanding of key predictors and relationships found in the training data.
We can examine coefficients from another model we trained, which is a logistic regression with elastic net regularization (which I will refer to as a penalized logistic regression). Positive values indicate that a feature increases a user’s probability of owning/rating a game, while negative values indicate a feature decreases the probability. To be precise, the coefficients indicate the effect of a particular feature on the log-odds of a user owning a game.
Why did the model identify these features? We can make density plots of the important features for predicting whether the user owned a game. Blue indicates the density for games owned by the user, while grey indicates the density for games not owned by the user.
Binary predictors can be difficult to see with this visualization, so we can also directly examine the percentage of games in a user’s collection with a predictor vs the percentage of all games with that predictor.
% of Games with Feature | ||||
username | Feature | User_Collection | All_Games | Ratio |
GOBBluth89 | Fantasy Flight Games | 32.0% | 1.1% | 29.92 |
GOBBluth89 | CMON Global Limited | 5.3% | 0.4% | 14.89 |
GOBBluth89 | Space Cowboys | 2.7% | 0.2% | 13.55 |
GOBBluth89 | Asmodee | 32.0% | 2.6% | 12.54 |
GOBBluth89 | Race | 10.7% | 1.0% | 10.90 |
GOBBluth89 | Variable Setup | 14.7% | 1.4% | 10.31 |
GOBBluth89 | Collectible Components | 17.3% | 1.7% | 10.11 |
GOBBluth89 | Alderac Entertainment Group | 5.3% | 0.7% | 7.19 |
GOBBluth89 | ZMan Games | 9.3% | 1.4% | 6.56 |
GOBBluth89 | Artist Klemens Franz | 4.0% | 0.6% | 6.55 |
GOBBluth89 | Dice With Icons | 6.7% | 1.1% | 5.82 |
GOBBluth89 | Pegasus Spiele | 12.0% | 2.2% | 5.47 |
GOBBluth89 | Mayfair Games | 5.3% | 1.1% | 4.78 |
GOBBluth89 | Bluffing | 22.7% | 5.7% | 3.99 |
GOBBluth89 | Hand Management | 54.7% | 20.1% | 2.72 |
Before predicting games in upcoming years, we can examine how well the model did and what games it liked in the training set. In this case, we used resampling techniques (cross validation) to ensure that the model had not seen a game before making its predictions.
Displaying the 100 games from the training set with the highest probability of ownership, highlighting in blue games the user has owned.
Rank | Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
1 | 2017 | 233078 | Twilight Imperium: Fourth Edition | 0.948 | yes |
2 | 2016 | 205637 | Arkham Horror: The Card Game | 0.847 | yes |
3 | 2012 | 124742 | Android: Netrunner | 0.725 | yes |
4 | 2016 | 187645 | Star Wars: Rebellion | 0.679 | no |
5 | 2018 | 205896 | Rising Sun | 0.587 | no |
6 | 2016 | 205359 | Star Wars: Destiny | 0.583 | yes |
7 | 2008 | 37111 | Battlestar Galactica: The Board Game | 0.568 | no |
8 | 2000 | 478 | Citadels | 0.516 | no |
9 | 2017 | 184151 | Legend of the Five Rings: The Card Game | 0.512 | no |
10 | 2019 | 285774 | Marvel Champions: The Card Game | 0.509 | yes |
11 | 2012 | 104162 | Descent: Journeys in the Dark (Second Edition) | 0.488 | no |
12 | 2015 | 169255 | A Game of Thrones: The Card Game (Second Edition) | 0.387 | yes |
13 | 2018 | 252328 | Star Wars: X-Wing (Second Edition) | 0.340 | yes |
14 | 2008 | 22826 | Mutant Chronicles Collectible Miniatures Game | 0.315 | no |
15 | 2019 | 281946 | Aftermath | 0.299 | no |
16 | 2016 | 205059 | Mansions of Madness: Second Edition | 0.297 | no |
17 | 2003 | 6472 | A Game of Thrones | 0.268 | no |
18 | 2015 | 175878 | 504 | 0.265 | no |
19 | 2006 | 22038 | Warrior Knights | 0.256 | no |
20 | 2019 | 253344 | Cthulhu: Death May Die | 0.256 | no |
21 | 2010 | 25292 | Merchants & Marauders | 0.246 | no |
22 | 2018 | 257501 | KeyForge: Call of the Archons | 0.224 | yes |
23 | 2017 | 221805 | Breaking Bad: The Board Game | 0.222 | no |
24 | 2019 | 271896 | Star Wars: Outer Rim | 0.218 | yes |
25 | 2009 | 43868 | The Adventurers: The Temple of Chac | 0.215 | no |
26 | 2011 | 96848 | Mage Knight Board Game | 0.214 | no |
27 | 2008 | 39953 | A Game of Thrones: The Card Game | 0.209 | no |
28 | 2006 | 14808 | Marvel Heroes | 0.207 | no |
29 | 2017 | 232918 | Fallout | 0.191 | no |
30 | 2019 | 269385 | The Lord of the Rings: Journeys in Middle-Earth | 0.191 | no |
31 | 2012 | 104363 | Rex: Final Days of an Empire | 0.187 | no |
32 | 2011 | 59959 | Letters from Whitechapel | 0.187 | no |
33 | 2008 | 39463 | Cosmic Encounter | 0.179 | yes |
34 | 2005 | 18723 | Aye, Dark Overlord! The Red Box | 0.177 | no |
35 | 2016 | 205716 | New Angeles | 0.174 | no |
36 | 1997 | 42 | Tigris & Euphrates | 0.173 | no |
37 | 2012 | 104710 | Wiz-War (Eighth Edition) | 0.169 | no |
38 | 2009 | 47185 | Warhammer: Invasion | 0.168 | no |
39 | 2017 | 190082 | Whitehall Mystery | 0.165 | yes |
40 | 2015 | 181530 | Runebound (Third Edition) | 0.164 | no |
41 | 2010 | 68182 | Isla Dorada | 0.160 | no |
42 | 2018 | 244711 | Newton | 0.159 | no |
43 | 2012 | 121921 | Robinson Crusoe: Adventures on the Cursed Island | 0.159 | no |
44 | 2004 | 9609 | War of the Ring | 0.158 | no |
45 | 1994 | 18 | RoboRally | 0.150 | no |
46 | 2015 | 170216 | Blood Rage | 0.149 | no |
47 | 2018 | 313010 | Cosmic Encounter: 42nd Anniversary Edition | 0.146 | no |
48 | 2012 | 103885 | Star Wars: X-Wing Miniatures Game | 0.146 | yes |
49 | 2017 | 174430 | Gloomhaven | 0.144 | yes |
50 | 2015 | 183562 | Star Wars: X-Wing Miniatures Game – The Force Awakens Core Set | 0.143 | no |
51 | 2011 | 77423 | The Lord of the Rings: The Card Game | 0.141 | yes |
52 | 2005 | 12493 | Twilight Imperium: Third Edition | 0.141 | yes |
53 | 2019 | 272453 | KeyForge: Age of Ascension | 0.140 | no |
54 | 2008 | 38453 | Space Alert | 0.139 | no |
55 | 2010 | 73439 | Troyes | 0.138 | no |
56 | 2011 | 83330 | Mansions of Madness | 0.138 | no |
57 | 2009 | 45134 | Arcana | 0.138 | no |
58 | 2005 | 18833 | Lord of the Rings: The Confrontation | 0.137 | no |
59 | 2004 | 9220 | Saboteur | 0.136 | no |
60 | 2019 | 283863 | The Magnificent | 0.133 | no |
61 | 2018 | 254591 | Heroes of Terrinoth | 0.132 | no |
62 | 2018 | 240464 | Cosmic Run: Regeneration | 0.127 | no |
63 | 2016 | 204837 | Game of Thrones: The Iron Throne | 0.124 | no |
64 | 2014 | 156776 | Warhammer 40,000: Conquest | 0.123 | yes |
65 | 2017 | 221107 | Pandemic Legacy: Season 2 | 0.122 | no |
66 | 2004 | 10547 | Betrayal at House on the Hill | 0.122 | no |
67 | 2011 | 42776 | Gears of War: The Board Game | 0.122 | yes |
68 | 2012 | 113924 | Zombicide | 0.122 | no |
69 | 2018 | 199792 | Everdell | 0.117 | no |
70 | 2013 | 127024 | Room 25 | 0.115 | no |
71 | 2015 | 175155 | Forbidden Stars | 0.114 | yes |
72 | 2017 | 195539 | The Godfather: Corleone's Empire | 0.114 | no |
73 | 2018 | 257499 | Arkham Horror (Third Edition) | 0.108 | no |
74 | 2019 | 286096 | Tapestry | 0.108 | no |
75 | 2006 | 21241 | Neuroshima Hex! 3.0 | 0.105 | no |
76 | 2016 | 205398 | Citadels | 0.104 | no |
77 | 2009 | 31563 | Middle-Earth Quest | 0.103 | no |
78 | 2010 | 65200 | Asteroyds | 0.103 | no |
79 | 2011 | 103343 | A Game of Thrones: The Board Game (Second Edition) | 0.102 | yes |
80 | 2014 | 164153 | Star Wars: Imperial Assault | 0.102 | yes |
81 | 2010 | 36367 | Dust Tactics | 0.101 | no |
82 | 2008 | 33107 | Senji | 0.101 | no |
83 | 2017 | 220775 | Codenames: Disney – Family Edition | 0.098 | no |
84 | 1998 | 503 | Through the Desert | 0.098 | no |
85 | 2009 | 43111 | Chaos in the Old World | 0.098 | no |
86 | 2002 | 3201 | Lord of the Rings: The Confrontation | 0.097 | no |
87 | 2016 | 196326 | Love Letter Premium | 0.093 | no |
88 | 2017 | 188920 | This War of Mine: The Board Game | 0.093 | no |
89 | 2012 | 123096 | Space Cadets | 0.093 | no |
90 | 2015 | 163745 | Star Wars: Armada | 0.092 | yes |
91 | 2001 | 5791 | Maelstrom | 0.092 | no |
92 | 2005 | 15987 | Arkham Horror | 0.091 | yes |
93 | 2002 | 4286 | A Game of Thrones Collectible Card Game | 0.091 | no |
94 | 2010 | 59294 | Runewars | 0.089 | no |
95 | 2011 | 102548 | Dungeon Fighter | 0.088 | no |
96 | 2015 | 171630 | Drakon (Fourth Edition) | 0.087 | no |
97 | 2016 | 200680 | Agricola (Revised Edition) | 0.087 | no |
98 | 2016 | 198773 | Codenames: Pictures | 0.085 | no |
99 | 2016 | 205158 | Codenames: Deep Undercover | 0.085 | no |
100 | 2010 | 71721 | Space Hulk: Death Angel – The Card Game | 0.085 | no |
This section contains a variety of visualizations and metrics for assessing the performance of the model(s) during resampling. If you’re not particularly interested in predictive modeling, skip down further to the predictions from the model.
An easy way to examine the performance of classification model is to view a separation plot. We plot the predicted probabilities from the model for every game (from resampling) from lowest to highest. We then overlay a blue line for any game that the user does own. A good classifier is one that is able to separate the blue (games owned by the user) from the white (games not owned by the user), with most of the blue occurring at the highest probabilities (right side of the chart).
We can more formally assess how well each model did in resampling by looking at the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. A perfect model would receive a score of 1, while a model that cannot predict the outcome will default to a score of 0.5. The extent to which something is a good score depends on the setting, but generally anything in the .8 to .9 range is very good while the .7 to .8 range is perfectly acceptable.
wflow_id | .metric | .estimator | .estimate |
GLM | roc_auc | binary | 0.89 |
Decision Tree | roc_auc | binary | 0.73 |
Another way to think about the model performance is to view its lift, or its ability to detect the positive outcomes over that of a null model. High lift indicates the model can much more quickly find all of the positive outcomes (in this case, games owned or played by the user), while a model with no lift is no better than random guessing. A gains chart is another way to view this.
While we are probably more interested in the lift provided by the models to evaluate their efficacy, we can also explore the optimal cutpoint if we wanted to define a hard threshold for identifying games a user will own vs not own.
The threshold we select depends on how we much we care about false positives (games the model predicts that the user does not own) vs false negatives (games the user owns that the model does not predict). We can toggle threshold to
Finally, we can understand the performance of the model by examining its calibration. If the model assigns a probability of 5%, how often does the outcome actually occur? A well calibrated model is one in which the predicted probabilities reflect the probabilities we would observe in the actual data. We can assess the calibration of a model by grouping its predictions into bins and assessing how often we observe the outcome versus how often our model expects to observe the outcome.
A model that is well calibrated will closely follow the dashed line - its expected probabilities match that of the observed probabilities. A model that consistently underestimates the probability of the event will be over this dashed line, be a while a model that overestimates the probability will be under the dashed line.
What games does the model think GOBBluth89 is most likely to own that are not in their collection?
Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
2016 | 187645 | Star Wars: Rebellion | 0.679 | no |
2018 | 205896 | Rising Sun | 0.587 | no |
2008 | 37111 | Battlestar Galactica: The Board Game | 0.568 | no |
2000 | 478 | Citadels | 0.516 | no |
2017 | 184151 | Legend of the Five Rings: The Card Game | 0.512 | no |
What games does the model think GOBBluth89 is least likely to own that are in their collection?
Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
2019 | 247367 | Air, Land, & Sea | 0.001 | yes |
1876 | 521 | Crokinole | 0.001 | yes |
2019 | 281073 | Cat Lady: Premium Edition | 0.001 | yes |
1475 | 171 | Chess | 0.002 | yes |
2015 | 176494 | Isle of Skye: From Chieftain to King | 0.002 | yes |
Top 25 games most likely to be owned by the user in each year, highlighting in blue the games that the user has owned.
rank | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
1 | Android: Netrunner | Room 25 | Warhammer 40,000: Conquest | A Game of Thrones: The Card Game (Second Edition) | Arkham Horror: The Card Game | Twilight Imperium: Fourth Edition | Rising Sun | Marvel Champions: The Card Game |
2 | Descent: Journeys in the Dark (Second Edition) | Lewis & Clark: The Expedition | Star Wars: Imperial Assault | 504 | Star Wars: Rebellion | Legend of the Five Rings: The Card Game | Star Wars: X-Wing (Second Edition) | Aftermath |
3 | Rex: Final Days of an Empire | Impulse | Arcadia Quest | Runebound (Third Edition) | Star Wars: Destiny | Breaking Bad: The Board Game | KeyForge: Call of the Archons | Cthulhu: Death May Die |
4 | Wiz-War (Eighth Edition) | Eldritch Horror | Black Fleet | Blood Rage | Mansions of Madness: Second Edition | Fallout | Newton | Star Wars: Outer Rim |
5 | Robinson Crusoe: Adventures on the Cursed Island | BANG! The Dice Game | DungeonQuest Revised Edition | Star Wars: X-Wing Miniatures Game – The Force Awakens Core Set | New Angeles | Whitehall Mystery | Cosmic Encounter: 42nd Anniversary Edition | The Lord of the Rings: Journeys in Middle-Earth |
6 | Star Wars: X-Wing Miniatures Game | Glass Road | Lost Legacy: The Starship | Forbidden Stars | Game of Thrones: The Iron Throne | Gloomhaven | Heroes of Terrinoth | KeyForge: Age of Ascension |
7 | Zombicide | Warhammer: Diskwars | Splendor | Star Wars: Armada | Citadels | Pandemic Legacy: Season 2 | Cosmic Run: Regeneration | The Magnificent |
8 | Space Cadets | Tash-Kalar: Arena of Legends | Ultimate Werewolf | Drakon (Fourth Edition) | Love Letter Premium | The Godfather: Corleone's Empire | Everdell | Tapestry |
9 | Star Wars: The Card Game | Blood Bound | Sheriff of Nottingham | Marvel Dice Masters: Age of Ultron | Agricola (Revised Edition) | Codenames: Disney – Family Edition | Arkham Horror (Third Edition) | Era: Medieval Age |
10 | Merchant of Venus (Second Edition) | BattleLore: Second Edition | The Witcher Adventure Game | T.I.M.E Stories | Codenames: Pictures | This War of Mine: The Board Game | A Song of Ice & Fire: Tabletop Miniatures Game – Stark vs Lannister Starter Set | Black Angel |
11 | Love Letter | Patchistory | Star Wars: Empire vs. Rebellion | Elysium | Codenames: Deep Undercover | Pandemic: Rising Tide | Root | KeyForge: Worlds Collide |
12 | Mafia: Vendetta | Capo Dei Capi | Patchwork | Pandemic Legacy: Season 1 | Terraforming Mars | Codenames: Duet | The Lord of the Rings: The Card Game – Two-Player Limited Edition Starter | Herbaceous Sprouts |
13 | Archipelago | Euphoria: Build a Better Dystopia | Deus | Mission: Red Planet (Second Edition) | Bloodborne: The Card Game | Star Wars: Destiny – Two-Player Game | Coimbra | Yukon Airways |
14 | Kemet | Concordia | Colt Express | Star Trek: Five-Year Mission | Unicornus Knights | Civilization: A New Dawn | Pandemic: Fall of Rome | Last Bastion |
15 | Keyflower | Zombicide Season 2: Prison Outbreak | Istanbul | Yashima: Legend of the Kami Masters | Black Orchestra | Downforce | Narcos: The Board Game | Maracaibo |
16 | Seasons | City of Remnants | Age of War | Fury of Dracula (Third/Fourth Edition) | Krosmaster Arena 2.0 | Massive Darkness | Star Wars: Legion | Clank!: Legacy – Acquisitions Incorporated |
17 | Scripts and Scribes: The Dice Game | Dungeon Twister: The Card Game | Camel Up | Love Letter: The Hobbit – The Battle of the Five Armies | Pandemic: Reign of Cthulhu | Runewars Miniatures Game | Ultimate Werewolf Legacy | Tiny Towns |
18 | Legends of Andor | Smash Up: Awesome Level 9000 | Gaïa | Warhammer Quest: The Adventure Card Game | DOOM: The Board Game | Summit: The Board Game | Zombicide: Green Horde | Pandemic: Rapid Response |
19 | Winter Tales | Gunrunners | Game of Thrones: Westeros Intrigue | We Were Brothers | Scythe | Spirit Island | Book of Dragons | TIME Stories Revolution: Damien 1958 NT |
20 | Sky Traders | Mascarade | Spyfall | Biblios Dice | Captain Sonar | Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective: Carlton House & Queen's Park | Discover: Lands Unknown | Caylus 1303 |
21 | Game of Thrones: The Card Game | Caverna: The Cave Farmers | Subdivision | Zaginione Dziedzictwo: Gwiezdne Ostrze | Greedy Greedy Goblins | Battle for Rokugan | Betrayal Legacy | Black Rose Wars |
22 | Clash of Cultures | Relic | Lost Legacy: Binbo Tantei to Inbo no Shiro | Zaginione Dziedzictwo: Wieża Białozłota | Archer: Once You Go Blackmail... | Secrets | Unlock!: Escape Adventures – In Pursuit of Cabrakan | Slyville |
23 | The Hobbit Card Game | Nightfall: Eastern Skies | Abyss | Grand Austria Hotel | Junta: Las Cartas | Unlock!: Escape Adventures – The Elite | Lords of Hellas | Machi Koro Legacy |
24 | Cockroach Poker Royal | Gearworld: The Borderlands | One Night Ultimate Werewolf | XCOM: The Board Game | Inis | A Tale of Pirates | Gen7: A Crossroads Game | Watergate |
25 | Libertalia | Legacy: The Testament of Duke de Crecy | 1944: Race to the Rhine | Bastion | Czas Zaorać Socjalizm | Clans of Caledonia | WARIGIN | Century: A New World |
This is an interactive table for the model’s predictions for the training set (from resampling).
We’ll validate the model by looking at its predictions for games published in 2020. That is, how well did a model trained on a user’s collection through 2020 perform in predicting games for the user in 2020?
username | outcome | dataset | method | .metric | .estimate |
GOBBluth89 | owned | validation | GLM | roc_auc | 0.890 |
GOBBluth89 | owned | validation | Decision Tree | roc_auc | 0.757 |
Table of top 50 games from 2020, highlighting games that the user owns.
Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
2020 | 298572 | Cosmic Encounter Duel | 0.339 | no |
2020 | 291457 | Gloomhaven: Jaws of the Lion | 0.184 | yes |
2020 | 314040 | Pandemic Legacy: Season 0 | 0.115 | no |
2020 | 304285 | Infinity Gauntlet: A Love Letter Game | 0.099 | no |
2020 | 292333 | Cowboys II: Cowboys & Indians Edition | 0.067 | no |
2020 | 256940 | Krosmaster: Blast | 0.056 | no |
2020 | 246900 | Eclipse: Second Dawn for the Galaxy | 0.049 | no |
2020 | 301607 | KeyForge: Mass Mutation | 0.048 | no |
2020 | 256317 | Guild Master | 0.042 | no |
2020 | 293889 | Fallout Shelter: The Board Game | 0.040 | no |
2020 | 306481 | Tawantinsuyu: The Inca Empire | 0.035 | no |
2020 | 316554 | Dune: Imperium | 0.029 | no |
2020 | 271524 | TIME Stories Revolution: A Midsummer Night | 0.029 | no |
2020 | 302425 | Unlock!: Mythic Adventures | 0.029 | no |
2020 | 301716 | Glasgow | 0.028 | no |
2020 | 184267 | On Mars | 0.028 | no |
2020 | 301919 | Pandemic: Hot Zone – North America | 0.027 | no |
2020 | 300322 | Hallertau | 0.025 | no |
2020 | 302723 | Forgotten Waters | 0.023 | no |
2020 | 295905 | Cosmic Frog | 0.023 | no |
2020 | 308652 | Age of Dogfights: WW1 | 0.023 | no |
2020 | 287742 | TIME Stories Revolution: The Hadal Project | 0.023 | no |
2020 | 312267 | Star Wars: Unlock! | 0.023 | no |
2020 | 299179 | Chancellorsville 1863 | 0.023 | no |
2020 | 296151 | Viscounts of the West Kingdom | 0.022 | no |
2020 | 299592 | Beez | 0.021 | no |
2020 | 294484 | Unmatched: Cobble & Fog | 0.021 | yes |
2020 | 315060 | Unmatched: Buffy the Vampire Slayer | 0.021 | yes |
2020 | 318183 | Prehistories | 0.019 | no |
2020 | 296345 | Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective: The Baker Street Irregulars | 0.018 | no |
2020 | 327913 | Unlock!: Timeless Adventures – Arsène Lupin und der große weiße Diamant | 0.018 | no |
2020 | 318084 | Furnace | 0.018 | no |
2020 | 302465 | Obsidia | 0.018 | no |
2020 | 301880 | Raiders of Scythia | 0.017 | no |
2020 | 284777 | Unmatched: Jurassic Park – InGen vs Raptors | 0.017 | no |
2020 | 325635 | Unmatched: Little Red Riding Hood vs. Beowulf | 0.017 | yes |
2020 | 245658 | Unicorn Fever | 0.016 | no |
2020 | 257001 | Munchkin Dungeon | 0.015 | no |
2020 | 310448 | Zombie Teenz Evolution | 0.015 | no |
2020 | 316377 | 7 Wonders (Second Edition) | 0.015 | no |
2020 | 256589 | Rallyman: GT | 0.015 | no |
2020 | 312965 | Hogs of War: The Miniatures Game | 0.014 | no |
2020 | 282922 | Windward | 0.014 | no |
2020 | 302809 | Betrayal at Mystery Mansion | 0.014 | no |
2020 | 298638 | Sheriff of Nottingham: 2nd Edition | 0.013 | no |
2020 | 301767 | Mysterium Park | 0.012 | no |
2020 | 306735 | Under Falling Skies | 0.012 | yes |
2020 | 320819 | Dinner in Paris | 0.012 | no |
2020 | 297030 | Tekhenu: Obelisk of the Sun | 0.012 | no |
2020 | 293296 | Splendor: Marvel | 0.012 | no |
We can then refit our model to the training and validation set in order to predict all upcoming games for the user.
Examine the top 100 upcoming games, highlighting in blue ones the user already owns.
Rank | Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
1 | 2022 | 349067 | The Lord of the Rings: The Card Game – Revised Core Set | 0.710 | no |
2 | 2022 | 331106 | The Witcher: Old World | 0.441 | no |
3 | 2021 | 340466 | Unfathomable | 0.309 | yes |
4 | 2021 | 285967 | Ankh: Gods of Egypt | 0.201 | no |
5 | 2022 | 256680 | Return to Dark Tower | 0.161 | no |
6 | 2023 | 347909 | Rogue Angels: Legacy of the Burning Suns | 0.155 | no |
7 | 2022 | 335764 | Unmatched: Battle of Legends, Volume Two | 0.133 | yes |
8 | 2022 | 326933 | Unmatched: Redemption Row | 0.133 | no |
9 | 2022 | 326934 | Unmatched: Hell's Kitchen | 0.133 | no |
10 | 2022 | 284778 | Unmatched: Jurassic Park – Dr. Sattler vs. T. Rex | 0.107 | no |
11 | 2021 | 343905 | Boonlake | 0.084 | no |
12 | 2022 | 317511 | Tindaya | 0.059 | no |
13 | 2022 | 346199 | A Game of Thrones: B'Twixt | 0.055 | no |
14 | 2021 | 322708 | Descent: Legends of the Dark | 0.053 | no |
15 | 2022 | 357746 | Disney Sorcerer's Arena: Epic Alliances Core Set | 0.053 | no |
16 | 2022 | 295770 | Frosthaven | 0.050 | no |
17 | 2021 | 273330 | Bloodborne: The Board Game | 0.049 | no |
18 | 2022 | 310873 | Carnegie | 0.046 | no |
19 | 2021 | 342848 | World of Warcraft: Wrath of the Lich King | 0.046 | no |
20 | 2021 | 316080 | KeyForge: Dark Tidings | 0.045 | no |
21 | 2021 | 291572 | Oath: Chronicles of Empire and Exile | 0.039 | no |
22 | 2022 | 322524 | Bardsung | 0.038 | no |
23 | 2022 | 266064 | Trudvang Legends | 0.038 | no |
24 | 2021 | 298102 | Roll Camera!: The Filmmaking Board Game | 0.037 | no |
25 | 2021 | 286751 | Zombicide: 2nd Edition | 0.036 | no |
26 | 2022 | 315610 | Massive Darkness 2: Hellscape | 0.036 | no |
27 | 2021 | 295947 | Cascadia | 0.036 | no |
28 | 2023 | 349793 | Age of Rome | 0.035 | no |
29 | 2022 | 338067 | 6: Siege – The Board Game | 0.034 | no |
30 | 2021 | 298069 | Cubitos | 0.032 | no |
31 | 2022 | 273814 | Deliverance | 0.031 | no |
32 | 2021 | 262201 | Sword & Sorcery: Ancient Chronicles | 0.031 | no |
33 | 2021 | 337397 | Warhammer Underworlds: Two-Player Starter Set | 0.031 | no |
34 | 2022 | 341945 | La Granja: Deluxe Master Set | 0.030 | no |
35 | 2022 | 322656 | burncycle | 0.029 | no |
36 | 2021 | 324242 | Sheepy Time | 0.028 | no |
37 | 2021 | 249277 | Brazil: Imperial | 0.028 | no |
38 | 2021 | 345435 | Fireball Island: Race to Adventure | 0.027 | no |
39 | 2022 | 251661 | Oathsworn: Into the Deepwood | 0.026 | no |
40 | 2022 | 283137 | Human Punishment: The Beginning | 0.026 | no |
41 | 2021 | 314491 | Meadow | 0.025 | no |
42 | 2021 | 295785 | Euthia: Torment of Resurrection | 0.025 | no |
43 | 2021 | 298383 | Golem | 0.025 | no |
44 | 2021 | 340237 | Wonder Book | 0.024 | no |
45 | 2021 | 291859 | Riftforce | 0.023 | yes |
46 | 2021 | 331635 | Kameloot | 0.023 | no |
47 | 2021 | 329670 | Pandemic: Hot Zone – Europe | 0.023 | no |
48 | 2022 | 342070 | Thunder Road: Vendetta | 0.021 | no |
49 | 2021 | 259962 | Stress Botics | 0.021 | no |
50 | 2021 | 290236 | Canvas | 0.020 | no |
51 | 2021 | 341169 | Great Western Trail (Second Edition) | 0.020 | no |
52 | 2022 | 352263 | Through Ice and Snow | 0.020 | no |
53 | 2021 | 338980 | Eastern Empires | 0.020 | no |
54 | 2021 | 342942 | Ark Nova | 0.019 | no |
55 | 2021 | 294986 | Necromolds: Monster Battles | 0.018 | no |
56 | 2022 | 347013 | Get on Board: New York & London | 0.018 | no |
57 | 2021 | 291847 | Mantis Falls | 0.018 | no |
58 | 2022 | 331398 | Mythic Battles: Ragnarök | 0.018 | no |
59 | 2021 | 339906 | The Hunger | 0.018 | no |
60 | 2021 | 333553 | For the King (and Me) | 0.017 | no |
61 | 2021 | 319792 | Fly-A-Way | 0.017 | no |
62 | 2023 | 312959 | Rallyman: DIRT | 0.017 | no |
63 | 2021 | 334782 | Bayou Bash | 0.017 | no |
64 | 2022 | 353470 | Star Wars: Jabba's Palace – A Love Letter Game | 0.017 | no |
65 | 2021 | 336794 | Galaxy Trucker | 0.016 | no |
66 | 2021 | 336195 | League of Dungeoneers | 0.016 | no |
67 | 2022 | 317321 | Darkest Dungeon: The Board Game | 0.016 | no |
68 | 2021 | 315937 | X-Men: Mutant Insurrection | 0.015 | no |
69 | 2021 | 340909 | Gloomholdin' | 0.015 | no |
70 | 2021 | 347137 | Chronicles of Avel | 0.015 | no |
71 | 2021 | 332290 | Stardew Valley: The Board Game | 0.015 | no |
72 | 2021 | 328286 | Mission ISS | 0.015 | no |
73 | 2022 | 342900 | Earthborne Rangers | 0.015 | no |
74 | 2022 | 332393 | Bridge City Poker | 0.015 | no |
75 | 2021 | 345976 | System Gateway (fan expansion for Android: Netrunner) | 0.014 | no |
76 | 2021 | 263222 | Shards of the Jaguar | 0.014 | no |
77 | 2021 | 304985 | Dark Ages: Holy Roman Empire | 0.014 | no |
78 | 2021 | 295535 | Dark Ages: Heritage of Charlemagne | 0.014 | no |
79 | 2022 | 308028 | Drop Drive | 0.014 | no |
80 | 2022 | 340325 | Vagrantsong | 0.014 | no |
81 | 2021 | 319263 | One Card Dungeon | 0.014 | no |
82 | 2021 | 318996 | Welcome to Sysifus Corp | 0.014 | no |
83 | 2022 | 305096 | Endless Winter: Paleoamericans | 0.014 | no |
84 | 2021 | 342073 | Berried Treasure | 0.013 | no |
85 | 2021 | 301366 | Caves of Rwenzori | 0.013 | no |
86 | 2022 | 298512 | Soulgivers | 0.013 | no |
87 | 2021 | 330084 | Unlock!: Legendary Adventures | 0.012 | no |
88 | 2021 | 339905 | Love Letter: Princess Princess Ever After | 0.012 | no |
89 | 2021 | 339789 | Welcome to the Moon | 0.012 | no |
90 | 2021 | 299566 | Batman: The Animated Series Adventures – Shadow of the Bat | 0.012 | no |
91 | 2022 | 280726 | Legacies | 0.012 | no |
92 | 2023 | 337627 | Voidfall | 0.012 | no |
93 | 2022 | 337098 | Lords of Vaala: Dragonbond | 0.012 | no |
94 | 2021 | 343562 | Horrified: American Monsters | 0.012 | no |
95 | 2022 | 325348 | Successors (Fourth Edition) | 0.012 | no |
96 | 2021 | 313730 | Harsh Shadows | 0.012 | no |
97 | 2021 | 306202 | Philosophia: Floating World | 0.012 | no |
98 | 2022 | 340672 | Council of 12 | 0.012 | no |
99 | 2021 | 318184 | Imperium: Classics | 0.012 | no |
100 | 2022 | 350316 | Wayfarers of the South Tigris | 0.012 | no |